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Gross lending estimated at £12.6 billion in August by council of mortgage lenders

Gross mortgage lending totalled an estimated £12.6 billion in August, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders. This represents a decline of 13% from July's revised total of £14.5 billion, but a seasonal fall in lending activity in August is to be expected. Estimated gross lending in the month was 37% lower than last August's total of £19.9 billion.

Despite the seasonal decline in activity, underlying lending levels appear to have stabilised during the summer, with stronger lending for house purchase balanced by lower levels of re mortgaging. This trend is unlikely to change for the rest of this year, with a pick-up in housing market activity checked by continuing funding constraints and a lack of ability or incentive to re mortgage.

Market developments continued to move in line with expectations over the last month. The housing market has shown further signs of improvement, with a range of evidence suggesting that it is in far better health than around the turn of the year. House prices have risen over the course of the summer. Estate agents are now reporting a rising trend, supporting data from most of the price indices. And activity levels continue to pick up, with house purchase mortgage approvals rising for the sixth consecutive month in July to the highest level since April last year.

But we remain wary of how much further this can go. Some of the firmness in house prices has been driven by a lack of properties coming onto the market. Potential movers might have been reluctant to sell at lower prices, while there was anecdotal evidence of some choosing to rent their homes. RICS has recently reported more sellers, which could alter the balance between supply and demand.

Some commentators have warned of the possibility of a period of renewed weakness. The Ernst & Young ITEM Club predicted a modest fall in prices over the first half of next year, describing the recent bounce as unsustainable and driven by a lack of supply and cash-buyers who have a limited supply of funds. ITEM predicted that the lack of mortgage finance and a reluctance to commit to significant purchases while the outlook for employment remains fragile will weigh on the market.

This was highlighted by negative net lending figure for July, showing that mortgage repayments outstripped new lending for the first time on record. Despite press comment to the contrary, it is not predominantly a sign that households are repaying more - underlying repayments are broadly steady. It is more indicative of the low levels of new lending currently taking place. Please see our recent News & Views article for a more detailed explanation. Our estimate for gross lending of £12.6 bn in August shows lending volumes remain subdued and that another negative seasonally adjusted net lending figure is possible.

The likelihood of a significant pick-up in lending remains weak, but the prospects for wholesale funding markets are improving. This could result in a gradual easing in constraints on the supply of funding over time. However, demand from consumers and a prudent approach to lending criteria are likely to mean that the market remains subdued.

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BY THE COUNCIL OF MORTGAGE LENDERS

Lending figures show slight rise, says    FSA   Financial Service Authority

The total value of outstanding residential loans nudged up by 1% (£12bn) to £1,200bn compared to a year earlier, according to the latest mortgage lending data from the Financial Services Authority.

In Q2 2009, the residential loan book grew by 0.2% offsetting the 0.2% fall in Q1 2009.

New lending on home purchases was about 51% of total lending in Q2 2009, up from 36% in Q1 2009, and is the first quarter to show more than a 50% share since Q4 2007.

The proportion of new lending for home purchases exceeded re mortgage business for the first time since Q3 2007.

New commitments were £10bn higher at £38bn in Q2 2009 than in Q1 2009, but is still 42% lower than a year earlier.

New loans for home purchases to first time buyers has increased slightly from about £3bn in Q1 2009 to £5bn in Q2 2009.

The proportion of new lending done at LTV of more than 90% stood at under 3% in the second quarter of this year, down from 15% two years earlier.

Loans to borrowers with an impaired credit history represented just under 0.4% of new lending in Q2 2009, compared to 2.2% a year earlier.

Arrears

New arrears fell for a second quarter from 60,000 in Q1 2009 to 51,000 in Q2 2009 - a fall of 14%. Both quarters showed a steady decrease from 68,000 in Q4 2008.

However, borrowers are still struggling to clear their arrears, and the total number of mortgages in arrears is still been steadily increasing and has been since early 2007. At the end of Q2 2009 there were 403,000 loan accounts in arrears, an increase of 3,000 or 1% since Q1 2009, and an increase of 30% on a year earlier.

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